2026 Outlook

As we get ready to turn the calendar to 2026, let's look at current market conditions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both setting up in bases and within striking distance of new all-time highs. This is an excellent sign. Moreover, the Russell 2000 has also shown strong action since April and is also closing in on a new all-time high. It is a fantastic sign to see these three indices all acting well.

In addition, stocks in trends continue to increase, a good sign that participation is growing and the rally is becoming broad-based. Stocks in trend is looking similiar to late 2023 / early 2024 which is a good sign.

Gold continues to rally strongly. I believe we may see Gold continue higher in a paroblic fashion in the first part of 2026. I could then see it top and base out as we start to see money flow into risker areas.

Speaking of riskier areas, Bitcoin did not act in 2025 as I or many others were hoping. While the majority of crypto traders were expecting a spectaular post-halving year, Bitcoin really didn't do much. However, I sincerely believe it is a mistake to completely tune out Bitcoin. It may very well have bottomed. Even if the bottom is in, Bitcoin looks like it needs time to base out. I can see it rallying later in 2026 as M2 Money Supply expands with more rate cuts expected in 2026.

Finally, in terms of seasonality, the mid-term year is notorious for corrections and bear markets. Some notable examples include 2022, 2018, 2002, and 1998. Typically, the springtime and summer are rough periods for trading in a midterm year. Bottoms usually occur near November around the election. I could see a scenario where we have a strong first quarter in 2026 followed by rough trading until we approach the November election. Then, we get a strong rally into 2027. No one knows for sure so all we can really do is watch the market for signs of when to get aggressive and when to pullback.

I would like to wish all my readers and happy, healthy, and prosperous 2026. May your year be filled with happiness, joy, and of course successful trading.

Risk right. Sit tight.

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