Bitcoin is currently setting up very powerfully with the fourth halving estimated to take place on April 19, 2024. In this blog post, I will lay out my thesis that the fourth halving combined with the addition of Bitcoin ETFs will lead to enormous increases in the price of Bitcoin into 2025.
For those that do not know, the Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half. The intention of the halving is to keep inflation under control. By reducing the mining reward, the supply of Bitcoin sold by miners is reduced. Thus, if there is demand for Bitcoin, it will be met by a sharp increase in prices. Historically, the months after the halving are usually extremely strong as you can see from the charts below. The combination of the halving event with the addition of Bitcoin ETFs is akin to throwing gasoline on a fire. I think it is very likely that Bitcoin will go on an enormously powerful move into the new year.
When we look at the current chart of Bitcoin, we can see it has been forming a very large base over the past few years. As the old trading saying goes, "The bigger the base, the higher into space." The action since February has been especially impressive. This is really illustrated when we take a look at the chart of IBIT, which is a Bitcoin ETF. Notice the heavy volume and strong price action that started in February. That is funds and institutions coming into the crypto space.
I am currently long Bitcoin over multiple buys and will be looking to add to my position should it clear recent resistance.
Sol, the cryptocurrency of the Solana blockchain platform, is also on my watchlist as it is setting up extremely well in a high-tight flag pattern. I will be looking to add to my position should it clear the $200 price range.
Risk right. Sit tight.
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Full Disclosure: I currently own Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum.
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