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Tariffs, Trade Wars, & Bottoms

  • Writer: T. Livingston
    T. Livingston
  • Mar 15
  • 2 min read

This post outlines my argument that the stock market has reached a significant bottom and will rally until the summer of 2025. Several factors indicate an oversold market poised for a strong recovery. While the S&P 500 has experienced a sharp decline in recent months, the Russell 2000 has fallen even further, nearing bear market territory, contributing to widespread investor bearishness.



Firstly, sentiment has become extremely negative. A review of financial blogs reveals significant fear regarding recessions, trade wars, and other news. Sentiment has reached levels typically seen at market bottoms. The AAII bull/bear survey shows bear sentiment nearing 60% this week, an extreme reading. Additionally, the VIX has surged, and put buying has increased, both suggesting a potential market bottom.




Notably, Chinese stocks like BABA, SE, FUTU, and BILI are exhibiting strong setups, indicating institutional investors may not be overly concerned about trade wars or recessions. Furthermore, Bitcoin, despite a recent decline, has found support at previous resistance levels, maintaining its post-election gains. This subtle strength suggests Bitcoin is being suppressed by the overall market and will likely rally strongly into the summer of 2025, alongside a broader market rally.






Risk right. Sit tight.


Full Disclosure: I currently own Bitcoin.


Disclaimer: This information is issued solely for informational and educational purposes and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. None of the information contained in this post constitutes a recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. From time to time, the content creator or its affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in this blog or the associated Twitter and Instagram feeds. The stock or stocks presented are not to be considered a recommendation to buy any stock or stocks. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives. Investors should consult their own financial or investment adviser before trading or acting upon any information provided. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

 
 
 

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